Thursday, May 2, 2019

probability - average number of rolls of a die between appearance of a side



I saw this might have been duplicated in places here -- I think this might be a variation on the coupon collector problem -- but I wanted to be sure and understand how to do the calculation.



I have an n-sided die. I want to know what the average number of rolls between the appearance of a number on the die, k is.



I thought that the binomial distribution would be appropriate here. The way I originally approached it was to say that we have a 1/n chance of getting a number. The chance of getting any other number is (n-1)/n. I know that if I wanted to know the odds of getting the same number several times in a row is (1n)m with m being the number of rolls. But beyond that I was a bit stumped. I know that there's a binomial distribution or a Harmonic number involved somehow, and I read the coupon collector's problem but honestly that explanation seemed to make things less clear rather than more.



Anyhow, if someone could point me to either a duplicate question or a better explanation that would be much appreciated.



Answer



The probability of that the desired side appears in the kth try (and not before) is:
(n1n)k11n=(n1)k1nk


so the average is
k=1k(n1)k1nk

or, if you let p=1/n, q=1p, we can define
f(q)=pk=1kqk1=(1q)k=1kqk1

Then, integrating by parts and having in mind the geometric series k=1qk=q1q,
q0f(t)dt=q1q(1q)+q0t1tdt=qqln(1q)

And then,

f(q)=11q=1p=n


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