I saw this might have been duplicated in places here -- I think this might be a variation on the coupon collector problem -- but I wanted to be sure and understand how to do the calculation.
I have an n-sided die. I want to know what the average number of rolls between the appearance of a number on the die, k is.
I thought that the binomial distribution would be appropriate here. The way I originally approached it was to say that we have a 1/n chance of getting a number. The chance of getting any other number is (n-1)/n. I know that if I wanted to know the odds of getting the same number several times in a row is (1n)m with m being the number of rolls. But beyond that I was a bit stumped. I know that there's a binomial distribution or a Harmonic number involved somehow, and I read the coupon collector's problem but honestly that explanation seemed to make things less clear rather than more.
Anyhow, if someone could point me to either a duplicate question or a better explanation that would be much appreciated.
Answer
The probability of that the desired side appears in the kth try (and not before) is:
(n−1n)k−11n=(n−1)k−1nk
so the average is
∞∑k=1k(n−1)k−1nk
or, if you let p=1/n, q=1−p, we can define
f(q)=p∞∑k=1kqk−1=(1−q)∞∑k=1kqk−1
Then, integrating by parts and having in mind the geometric series ∞∑k=1qk=q1−q,
∫q0f(t)dt=q1−q(1−q)+∫q0t1−tdt=q−q−ln(1−q)
And then,
f(q)=11−q=1p=n
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