Friday, May 24, 2019

integration - Integrating a cost function over a normal distribution




Let's say you have a cost function C(x) and you want to understand the expected cost if the input follows the normal distribution



XN(μ,σ2)



If I want to find my expected cost, I would need to integrate over the normal distribution



E(C(x))=1σ2πC(x)e(xμ)22σ2dx



I have found ways to approximate the integral of the normal distribution (e.g. taylor series), but nothing on how to integrate another function over it.




I can numerically estimate the integral given an arbitrary cost function, but I was wondering if there is any way to simplify it analytically and see how the expected cost changes as a function of μ and σ and my cost function?



If the arbitrary cost function is too hard, would it be possible to solve for a simplier case such as C(x)=x2? Even in this case I'm struggling to simplify it, although it just might not be possible.


Answer



HINT:



If C(x)=x2, then we can find a closed form for its expected value. Recall that



I(a)=eax2dx=πa




and



I(a)=x2eax2dx=π1/22a3/2



Then, change variables from (xμ)/2σ to x and expand the quadratic inside the integral.



Can you finish from here?


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