Let's say you have a cost function C(x) and you want to understand the expected cost if the input follows the normal distribution
X∼N(μ,σ2)
If I want to find my expected cost, I would need to integrate over the normal distribution
E(C(x))=1σ√2π∫∞−∞C(x)e−(x−μ)22σ2dx
I have found ways to approximate the integral of the normal distribution (e.g. taylor series), but nothing on how to integrate another function over it.
I can numerically estimate the integral given an arbitrary cost function, but I was wondering if there is any way to simplify it analytically and see how the expected cost changes as a function of μ and σ and my cost function?
If the arbitrary cost function is too hard, would it be possible to solve for a simplier case such as C(x)=x2? Even in this case I'm struggling to simplify it, although it just might not be possible.
Answer
HINT:
If C(x)=x2, then we can find a closed form for its expected value. Recall that
I(a)=∫∞−∞e−ax2dx=√πa
and
−I′(a)=∫∞−∞x2e−ax2dx=π1/22a3/2
Then, change variables from (x−μ)/√2σ to x and expand the quadratic inside the integral.
Can you finish from here?
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