Monday, December 26, 2016

probability - How many throws of a die until every possible result is obtained?






A die is thrown until every possible result (i.e., every integer from 1 to 6) is obtained. Find the expected value of the number of throws.




How do I do that? I understand that probability for the single result is {1,5/6,,1/6}, but what about the expected value?


Answer



This is a very popular problem. I learned it as the "collector's problem".



Essentially, you want to model rolling a die until a new face is shown
as a geometric distribution with pk=7k6 where k=1,,6 is the number of faces you have seen. So, if Xk denotes rolling until you see kth different face, then XkGeom(pk) on {1,2,3,}. It follows that X=X1++X6 is the number of rolls until you have seen all six faces. Then

E[X]=E[X1]+E[X2]++E[X6]=66+65++61=14.7.


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