This is probably quite a simple question but here I go..
Suppose you are going to roll a six-sided (fair) die N times, what is the probability that you will get at least one set of three consecutive numbers in a row?
Hopefully that's clear enough but as an example, in nine rolls you may get:
1, 4, 2, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3
With the 4s making two sets of consecutive rolls.
Thanks!
Answer
Let T denote the first time when this happens and, for every |s|⩽1 and k in {0,1,2}, uk(s)=Ek[sT] where k is the number of identical results just produced. One is asking for P0[T⩽N]. A one-step Markov conditioning yields the usual linear system u0=su1, u1=s(16u2+56u1) and u2=s(16+56u1).
Solving this yields u0(s)=s336−30s−5s2. There exists two positive real numbers a and b such that 36−30s−5s2=36(1−as)(1+bs), thus u0(s)=1361a+bs3(a1−as+b1+bs) and, for every n⩾1, P0[T=n+2]=1361a+b(an−(−1)nbn). The value of P0[T⩽N] follows.
Numerically, a=112(5+3√5)=0.97568, b=112(−5+3√5)=0.14235, for every n⩾1, P0[T=n+2]=118√5(an−(−1)nbn), and, when n→∞, P0[T=n]∼7−3√55√5an,P0[T⩾n]∼125√5an.
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