Saturday, April 14, 2018

probability - Expected number of die rolls until obtaining three same consecutive numbers.

What is the expected number of die rolls required to get 3 same consecutive outcomes (for example: a 111, 222, etc) if we use a 6-sided fair die? I was able to solve the case for a particular number like 3 consecutive sixes. The answer comes out to be 258. But in this question can we say expected number is 1+E, where E is the expected number of obtaining two consecutive 1's if the first die roll was a one or two consecutive 2's if the first die will was a 2 etc.
So that way E=56(1+E)+16(56(2+E)+216). E comes out to be 42. So the final answer is 43. Is this correct? If not, what's the correct method?

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