Sunday, December 27, 2015

dice - probability of false alarm for a loaded die

A loaded 6-sided die has probability 1/4 for 3 & 4 and 1/8 for 1,2,5,6. If i decide whether a die is loaded or not based on one roll what is the probability of falsely classifying a fair die as loaded? What is the probability of classifying a loaded die as fair?



Not sure how to solve this. The probability of getting a 3 or 4 on a loaded die is 1/2 and on a fair die it is 1/3. The likelihood ratio is 3/2. Where do i go from here?

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