Let
- E be an at most countable Polish space and E be the Borel σ-algebra on E
- X=(Xn)n∈N0 be a Markov chain with values (E,E), distributions (Px)x∈E and transition matrix p=(p(x,y))x,y∈E=(Px[X1=y])x,y∈E
- τ0x:=0 and τkx:=inf{n>τk−1x:Xn=x}for x∈E and k∈N and ϱ(x,y):=Px[τ1y<∞]=Px[∃n∈N:Xn=y]
Suppose x∈E is a recurrent state, i.e. ϱ(x,x)=1.
Clearly, since ϱ(x,y)>0, there exists a sequence x1,…,xn∈E with xn=y and P[Xi=xi for all i∈N]>0.
Moreover,
1−ϱ(x,x)=Px[τ1x=∞]≥Px[X1=x1,…,Xn=xn and τ1x=∞],
but I don't understand why the last term is equal to Px[X1=x1,…,Xn=xn]Py[τ1x=∞].
Some authors state, that (2) holds by "the" (elementary? weak? strong?) Markov property, but honestly, I don't see that.
As another important note: They assume xi≠x. That might be crucial for (2), but that's the next problem: I don't understand why we can choose n such that xi≠x. I've seen that authors define n to be the infimum of {n∈N:Px[Xn=y]>0},
EDIT:The last term in (1) is equal to Px[τ1x=∞∣X1=x1,…,Xn=xn]Px[X1=x1,…,Xn=xn].
How can we verify this formally?
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