Wednesday, October 17, 2018

measure theory - If x is a recurrent state of a discrete Markov chain and the probability to go from x to y is positive, then y is recurrent

Let




  • E be an at most countable Polish space and E be the Borel σ-algebra on E


  • X=(Xn)nN0 be a Markov chain with values (E,E), distributions (Px)xE and transition matrix p=(p(x,y))x,yE=(Px[X1=y])x,yE

  • τ0x:=0 and τkx:=inf{n>τk1x:Xn=x}
    for xE and kN and ϱ(x,y):=Px[τ1y<]=Px[nN:Xn=y]



Suppose xE is a recurrent state, i.e. ϱ(x,x)=1.

Let yE with ϱ(x,y)>0 .




Clearly, since ϱ(x,y)>0, there exists a sequence x1,,xnE with xn=y and P[Xi=xi for all iN]>0.

Moreover,



1ϱ(x,x)=Px[τ1x=]Px[X1=x1,,Xn=xn and τ1x=],



but I don't understand why the last term is equal to Px[X1=x1,,Xn=xn]Py[τ1x=].




Some authors state, that (2) holds by "the" (elementary? weak? strong?) Markov property, but honestly, I don't see that.




As another important note: They assume xix. That might be crucial for (2), but that's the next problem: I don't understand why we can choose n such that xix. I've seen that authors define n to be the infimum of {nN:Px[Xn=y]>0},

but that doesn't seem to guarantee, that X doesn't return a number of time to x before it goes to y.



EDIT:The last term in (1) is equal to Px[τ1x=X1=x1,,Xn=xn]Px[X1=x1,,Xn=xn].

Intuitively, by the memorylessness of X, Px[τ1x=X1=x1,,Xn=xn] should be equal to Px[τ1x=Xn=xn] and since xn=y, this probability should be equal to Py[τ1x=].



How can we verify this formally?

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